However, can you be such? We think, the United States second borrowing the crisis is finite to the influence of Chinese economy. Is American economy to put delay or decline? American economist still does not have final conclusion up to now. The definition that judges economic depression is, one country GDP appears successive the negative growth of two quarters. Although second after borrowing disturbance happening, american economy was added 2007 fast for 2.2% , it is the poorest performance that comes 5 years, but did not appear negative growth. And the package finance program that American government publishs exciting economy, be expected to increase economy to increase a percent. So, make American economy had been immersed in the conclusion of decline now, still be vogue early. Chinese economy still advances triumphantly, GDP amplitude continues to be in 10% above, won't change.
Guess 2: 2008, does inflationary pressure approach China again? Suffer world economy to last growth, dollar depreciates, Oupeike is restricted to produce, industry of fuel of active, biology grows international speculation quickly bring about commissariat demand to increase the influence that waits for a variety of elements, in recent years, the price of the heavy goods such as oil of the oil on the international market, commissariat, edible, iron ore, nonferrous metal rises continuously, world each country includes China inside especially with " golden brick Shikoku " the burgeoning economy system that is a delegate, appear generally the inflation of different level. Mixed 19 days on Feburary 18, the PPI that national statistic bureau announces and CPI data show, PPI went up in January 6.1% , achieve CPI of month of 3 years of new tall;1 to go up 7.1% achieve 11 years new tall. PPI and CPI couplet sleeve tall, adumbrative " solve one problem only to find another cropping up " the situation will be adapted -- calabash and gourd ladle are possible a float rise, adumbrative inflation pressure had formed ascendant channel, the general that gives industrial product the value thereby goes up opened envisage a space.
Guess 3: 2008, monetary policy from moderately tight turn for agile from close? Prevent economy to grow by slant fast turn to overheat, prevent the price to rise by structural sex evolve for apparent inflation, conference of central economy job puts forward clearly " two prevent " be " the first job of macroscopical adjusting control " . In this fundamental key changeless premise falls, on one hand, the strength of macroscopical 2008 adjusting control strengthened; apparently on the other hand, the rhythm of macroscopical 2008 adjusting control becomes a few more agile likely. Hu Jintao's secretary-general emphasizes recently, should hold world economy correctly to go situation and its are right the influence of our country, science holds the rhythm of macroscopical adjusting control and strength, maintain economy longly to grow more quickly smoothly as far as possible. Went up 10 times to tone deposit reserve is led and add the setting of breath 6 times last year, this year the United States decreases the situation of breath to fall substantially continuously, suffer snow calamity losing in our country south especially after circumstance happening, 2008, monetary policy from moderately tight turn for agile from close, be helpful for perfecting system of macroscopical adjusting control, be helpful for improving the macroscopical environment that Chinese industry grows.
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