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Report of Chinese industry progress was reached 2008 guess
From;    Author:Stand originally


Guess 4: 2008, is Olympic Games effect pulled on certain level move inside need? 2007, in the GDP growth of 11.4% , consumption, investment, only outlet is pulled respectively move 4.4, 4.3, 2.7 percent. Consumption exceeds investment 7 years first to the contribution of GDP. Although consume mere prep above to invest 0.1 percent, but consumption contributes to GDP this changes sadly, pattern of indication economy growth appeared inflection point, its meaning is self-evident. 2008 is an Olympic Games year, china holds the Olympic Games first, can pull on certain level move inside need, thereby the real significance that aggrandizement spending rises this inflection point. And consumption, investment, exit " 3 drive carriage " keep abreast of, the first, the 2nd, tertiary industy develops in coordination, accord with the development direction of new-style industrialization completely.

Besides this 4 outside guessing greatly, it is worth while to have at least still 4 guess greatly attention:

It is, 2008, deepen reform already there can be no turning back, what domain obtains materiality likely, new breakthrough?

2 be, 2008, international oil price is in 100 beauty round / the perch of bucket above moves, whether can you make a kind of trend?

3 be, 2008, flaming of enthusiasm of Chinese capital market is arrogant city, whether continue to deduce?

4 be, 2008 is to change year, change in the government a particular year, to the action that economy grows, what kind of change to produce likely?

Should say, all this 8 guess greatly, the development with Chinese industry, be be closely bound up.

What be worth to be carried particularly is, advance what be based on a city to change quickly upgrade ceaselessly with what the life consumes, car, residence and infrastructure build the driving growth that waits for final demand, the swift and violent growth that drove pair of steely, machinery, building materials and chemical industry to wait for demand of industrial product output, caused what wait for energy demand to coal, oil and electric power to grow substantially again then, formed large quantities of one dominant industries that promote economy to grow quickly thereby group. These industries group, be in bead the 7 large area such as area of trigonometry area, long area of 3 rivers area, annulus Bohai Sea, mid area, big northwest, big southwest and northeast area, dotted, blossom everywhere, form the force of spark set the prairie ablaze.

Be based on a such judgement just about, although have,guess, hard to avoid has variable, but taking one with another, we still can make more big bravery and a few more long-term guess: To 2020, before Chinese industrialization comes true basically, after Chinese economy still can maintain the high speed of 9-10% above to grow; China industrialization to came true basically 2020, chinese economy also can maintain the middling speed growth of 7-9% above. The length of this time span, should not little at 30 years.
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