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Near future hot-rolling board roll the market goes situation forecast
From;    Author:Stand originally
Pull from demand move cost to drive, market of Chinese rolled steel affected the element of the price to produce simple change. Turn one's head 2007, the price rises drop rise and fall, or get policy, or get raw material, influencing factor is numerous; But overall and character, hot-rolling board coils the price is being pushed ceaselessly tall, platform base is firm with each passing day. Look into 2008, hot-rolling board coils the market still suffers numerous element place to beset, advantages and disadvantages the element interweaves each other, different level price will appear a different characteristic, with each passing day of frequency of price wave motion is frequent, according to regularity the operation cannot have complied with nowadays environment it seems that. So how better assurance near future hot-rolling board roll market trend, how can circulation market obtain better gains, become a of nowadays steel city popular topic.
Above all, from the point of macroscopical face, two respects element will be opposite the market produced main effect 2008:
It is capital element, chinese people bank decides to rise from December 21, 2007, adjust financial orgnaization RMB to put loan standard interest rate, a year period deposit is fiducial interest rate by active 3.87% rise 4.14% , 0.27 percent are moved on; A year period loan is standard interest rate by active 7.29% rise 7.47% , 0.18 percent are moved on; Other each class is put, loan is standard interest rate is adjusted accordingly. Meanwhile, each bank tightens up money. Face this kind of situation, we consider carefully to analyse discovery, at present the bank is put borrow a quantity to did not give now to fall, at the same time fixed assets invests still bigger. In January 2008 portion, loan of financial orgnaization RMB increases 803.6 billion yuan, add 237.3 billion yuan more compared to the same period, and before this 3 years average new increment is the corresponding period only 470 billion yuan or so. In January end, RMB loan grows 16.74% compared to the same period, the year end on amplitude comparing is 0.64 high percent.
This besides with a heavy snow has particular concern during the Spring Festival outside, actually main reason or government should maintain rapid growth of economy, although can bring constant inflationary pressure, but the harmonious development to the society is helpful. And, from Euramerican in light of the rule that waits for progress of economy of developed country associate with, phase of farming labour transition is in in the society, moderate inflation is inevitable. Russia inflation rate achieved 11.5 % 2007; The United States 4.1% ; Euro area achieved 3.2 % January this year; And inflationary rate achieved China 2007 4.8% ; Outside taking no account of difference of statistical caliber leaven dough, inside the interval that inflationary rate of China still is in to be able to accuse.
So, predicted our country economy moves 2008 will gradually hasten is firm, the inherent power that economy runs still stronger. From capital level analysis, may constrictive to capital of certain industry presence pressure, be like estate, this may be the key of national need adjusting control; But wait for manufacturing industry to steely trade trade and downstream machining, the use capacity of its capital should not appear too big question. The use cost that crucial question is capital is met relatively 7 annual meeting have bigger growth, this are in what second half of the year had behaved 2007 is very apparent.
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